Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28d7bf24d1ce3fb8af152388ab2aaa7ac2bd3f6219faaa7413c0c72d4e6b3ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,037$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.44 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 74c | 280.65$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 247.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 27c | 216.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 30c | 215.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 207.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 196.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 45c | 161.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 19c | 153.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 143.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 100.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 44c | 85.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 84.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 71.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 30c | 65.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 64.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 28c | 64.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 63.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 55.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 49.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 77c | 48.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 32c | 43.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 47c | 36.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 34.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 74c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 32.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 69c | 30.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 40c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…5b54backed No | 52c | 27.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 60c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 60c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.