CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs HOTU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b6c00c98e205029ae17d5ca1e22bfb0ddf3be52c66bbe71e09383d53f36e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof FURIA, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed HOTU | 10c | 18,629$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,705.15 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU | 10c | 5,857$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,270.95 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked HOTU | 61c | 4,287$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.96 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked FURIA | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed HOTU | 40c | 2,547$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HOTU | 11c | 1,349$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed HOTU | 41c | 1,089$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.3 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed FURIA | 64c | 1,056$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.31 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed FURIA | 62c | 666$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.59 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed HOTU | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FURIA | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked HOTU | 47c | 347.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed FURIA | 66c | 303.85$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked HOTU | 34c | 298.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.15 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed HOTU | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…59d0backed HOTU | 13c | 207.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed FURIA | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed FURIA | 78c | 192.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked HOTU | 72c | 169.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…9172backed FURIA | 68c | 158.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed FURIA | 67c | 149.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FURIA | 74c | 136.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 236 | 46.2%109 W · 127 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked FURIA | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed FURIA | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed FURIA | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked FURIA | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed FURIA | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed HOTU | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…204ebacked FURIA | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.