College Football · resolved market
Toledo vs. Kentucky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ba017389c451b8342575e7e5bc099adb01680973711acf6ebbfd280970d63f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kentuckyof Toledo, Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Toledo | 13c | 3,560$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.68 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kentucky | 74c | 3,064$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.12 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Toledo | 26c | 2,880$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.8 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kentucky | 79c | 2,404$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.32 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Toledo | 23c | 1,121$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.93 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Kentucky | 75c | 1,086$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…00f2backed Toledo | 25c | 888$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Toledo | 24c | 654.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Toledo | 24c | 261$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kentucky | 76c | 213$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Toledo | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Kentucky | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Toledo | 23c | 174.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…b10abacked Kentucky | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Kentucky | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Kentucky | 78c | 128.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Toledo | 23c | 104.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Toledo | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Kentucky | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kentucky | 74c | 87.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Toledo | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Toledo | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Toledo | 23c | 61.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Kentucky | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Toledo | 24c | 49.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Kentucky | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…3b11backed Kentucky | 72c | 36.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Kentucky | 77c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Kentucky | 78c | 32.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Kentucky | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Kentucky | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.