NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c45062ed3b59f6becc07ef449bb6c0b7cf6fb4bbe9371ad438ad9dca68f721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Golden Knights, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Golden Knights | 53c | 25,674$13,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,699.37 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Sharks | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,599.99 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Sharks | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Golden Knights | 53c | 1,801$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.53 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 46c | 1,702$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Golden Knights | 53c | 1,408$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.3 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 48c | 1,232$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.67 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 52c | 1,227$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.07 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Sharks | 48c | 899.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Golden Knights | 52c | 598.07$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Sharks | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 53c | 439$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.67 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Golden Knights | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Golden Knights | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Golden Knights | 51c | 144.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Sharks | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Golden Knights | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Golden Knights | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Sharks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Sharks | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Golden Knights | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Golden Knights | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c5…cd3cbacked Sharks | 49c | 24.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2df…2f6bbacked Golden Knights | 53c | 19.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.