Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2f7d9ef69fc0492e690aa93595c763be46562e4af5e0214e2409d2b7f63f883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 7c | 1,724$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 11c | 532.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 9c | 408.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 20c | 371.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 369.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 77c | 352.03$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 12c | 342.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 80c | 330.54$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 242.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 80c | 231.43$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 8c | 221.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 13c | 207.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 8c | 181.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 20c | 163.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 14c | 129.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6edbbacked No | 13c | 87.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 18c | 75.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 50c | 64.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 70c | 44.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 72c | 42.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked Yes | 70c | 36.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed Yes | 69c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 47c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 64c | 24.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.