Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2f9300b665851f67a229f124f64b5369738433b7a790acaa8f22f74920b40d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 30c | 5,271$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.93 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 66c | 3,941$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 36c | 2,546$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.69 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 2,534$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.2 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 39c | 1,995$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.87 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 59c | 1,801$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,540$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 1,291$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 41c | 975.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.61 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes | 39c | 948.71$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 46c | 893.88$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.76 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 69c | 674.29$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Yes | 65c | 486$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 71c | 440.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 423.21$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 405.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 40c | 358.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.48 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 37c | 358.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.21 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 39c | 168.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 159.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…03cdbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 39c | 115.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…5ab8backed Yes | 38c | 104.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 60c | 99.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…84f6backed Yes | 39c | 92.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…c263backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 63c | 44.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…2890backed Yes | 38c | 32.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…d6cdbacked Yes | 65c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.