Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fb3ad661652b552562a63f5eab63f03fe4269b8d4c129601b471f85296a98e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 42c | 988.58$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.42 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…172bbacked Yes | 52c | 842.73$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 43c | 265$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…6b32backed Yes | 12c | 239.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 11c | 218.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 184$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 54c | 91.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 48c | 65.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 64.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 60.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 50c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 33.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 32.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 48c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 46c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 27.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 23.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.