Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Holger Rune
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf30c696287e0669273241bb9256195105e6d9f4dcd3ddb9b14ac559e58d3fa04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runeof Baez, Rune
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Baez | 0c | 13,369$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rune | 76c | 9,444$7,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Baez | 27c | 8,813$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.88 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rune | 73c | 1,717$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Baez | 28c | 1,266$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.71 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Rune | 80c | 1,190$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Baez | 18c | 1,071$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Baez | 19c | 1,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.47 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 73c | 950$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Baez | 20c | 736.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Baez | 19c | 508.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Baez | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune | 78c | 347.76$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baez | 16c | 341.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Baez | 21c | 162$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Rune | 79c | 161.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Baez | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rune | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Baez | 14c | 121.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Baez | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Baez | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Baez | 24c | 83.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Baez | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…9b0bbacked Baez | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.