Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31aea52210f29315fd6845e505f0b857228abd13f199cf48855f25104da6364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 398.33$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 20c | 388.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 357.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 77c | 325.37$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 309.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 60c | 246.51$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes | 34c | 231.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 210.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 35c | 162.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 142.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 138.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 21c | 125.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 117.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 101.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 29c | 100.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 98.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 98.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 94.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 55c | 91.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 83.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 79.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 77.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 36c | 77.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 66c | 69.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 34c | 69.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 68.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 67.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 36c | 59.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 35c | 58.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 29c | 55.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 53.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 49.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 48.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 24c | 44.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 39c | 42.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 41.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 28.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 62c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.