Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3227d36b9cee9011e3e4ed9eff1bb27468738b9a77e1dd04811be44fa508ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,541 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 13c | 299.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 272.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 260.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 34c | 258.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 240.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 220.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 206.58$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 183.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 27c | 182.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 153.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 38c | 130.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 111.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 76c | 97.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 63c | 89.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 81.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 65.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 65.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 50.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 48.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 28c | 45.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 36.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 31c | 36.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 66c | 33.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 79c | 31.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked No | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…717abacked No | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 76cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.