Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08da040019468c1cb54e50e60ca120e1208dddb89bd1ce2009212d31aeac1f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,184 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 618.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 35c | 492.41$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 61c | 478.83$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.38 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 9c | 357.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 282.73$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 273.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 267.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 252.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 15c | 249.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 212.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 42c | 212.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 203.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 183.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 64c | 171.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 59c | 171.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 35c | 164.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…8513backed Yes | 11c | 152.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 73c | 141.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 69c | 135.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 133.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 80c | 126.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 118.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 112.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 110.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 68c | 107.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 12c | 104.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 76c | 100.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 70c | 100.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 98.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 20c | 86.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 21c | 77.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 49c | 75.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 21c | 69.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…b631backed No | 26c | 65.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 30c | 65.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 31c | 57.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 54.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…ad33backed Yes | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 45.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 45.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 42.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 74c | 40.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…6063backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 31c | 35.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 52c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 50c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed No | 73c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 70c | 22.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 79c | 22.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 20.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 17.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…a90abacked No | 79c | 17.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.