Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73473452a6dddcc6264bb358e9fecc575641b2b5f776d30addc789430ad9f911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,060$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 76c | 682.1$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.36 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 50c | 424.34$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 33c | 410.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 328.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 277.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 49c | 252.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 247$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 246.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 242.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 220.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 8c | 217.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 33c | 206.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 203.05$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 196.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 7c | 195.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 195.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 183.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 19c | 178.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 41c | 178.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 156.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 24c | 154.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 153.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 65c | 153.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 139.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 39c | 137$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 26c | 134$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 41c | 123.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 107.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 67c | 107.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 44c | 106.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 100.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 22c | 95.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 83.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 82.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 62c | 80.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 66c | 75.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 41c | 63.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 58c | 62.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 60.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf2…6a36backed Yes | 45c | 55.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 55c | 54.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 42c | 54.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 42c | 54.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 30c | 52.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 68c | 51.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1d0ebacked No | 63c | 49.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…51c9backed Yes | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…811dbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 43.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 43.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 31c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 54c | 39.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 37.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 41c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 34.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 49c | 34.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed Yes | 35c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 69c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…f58ebacked No | 61c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 60c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 53c | 27.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 57c | 26.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 63c | 25.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…a42bbacked Yes | 39c | 25.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 52c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 60c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6bc1backed No | 55c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…fff3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.