Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32b1508c090c1567a57f320831b889850b983d9e265f3a125680a046a9b2f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 25c | 2,222$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.49 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,323$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.81 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 1,251$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.81 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 1,095$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.91 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 979.45$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 25c | 890.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 483.43$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 24c | 407.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 77c | 391.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 274$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 260.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 23c | 201$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 71c | 114$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 24c | 105.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 102.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 24c | 100.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…e863backed No | 74c | 80.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 72.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…9d48backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…f43fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 76c | 62.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 26c | 57.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 77c | 39.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 78c | 39.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…11f0backed No | 76c | 28.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 78c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed No | 60c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 72cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.