Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3af4d1c6b8032e706348c197fb8f96b24233957bd10c7b0705aef2b2a79bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Yes | 47c | 11,005$5,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 53c | 3,509$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.19 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 51c | 3,065$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.93 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 66c | 2,499$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.77 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 54c | 2,108$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 15c | 1,957$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.06 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…7b9ebacked No | 53c | 1,805$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 38c | 1,754$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 1,590$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.16 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…34b1backed Yes | 77c | 1,558$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,454$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.14 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 54c | 1,002$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.87 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 992.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 58c | 983.03$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.93 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1c13backed No | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 563.54$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 45c | 391.58$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.48 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 55c | 375.44$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 18c | 348.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 344.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 16c | 340.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 36c | 222.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 58c | 217.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 52c | 201.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…4529backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 53c | 185.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 15c | 142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 9c | 134.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 21c | 114.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed No | 17c | 112.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 29c | 107.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 12c | 101.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…ff47backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…681bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 49c | 83.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 16c | 68.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 49c | 64.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 40c | 63.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 52c | 61.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 54c | 55.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 56c | 53.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 54c | 50.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Yes | 44c | 48.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 62c | 34.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 53c | 32.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…f829backed Yes | 77c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 39c | 27.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…ad9bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked No | 57c | 19.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.