NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32d393b11a5eb26f7c0264c3bb50de8a61836a92849db007518e77b00c3f748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Ducks, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Ducks | 27c | 1,947$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.85 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 70c | 1,330$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…fd76backed Ducks | 28c | 1,070$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 30c | 969.9$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Flames | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Ducks | 30c | 796.67$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Flames | 70c | 516.96$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 69c | 463$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Ducks | 30c | 440.7$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…5a8bbacked Flames | 72c | 430$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…4893backed Flames | 72c | 370$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…acc8backed Flames | 72c | 320$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flames | 72c | 294$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Flames | 69c | 254$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 30c | 253$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Flames | 71c | 211.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Ducks | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Ducks | 28c | 100.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Flames | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flames | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Flames | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Ducks | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flames | 69c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Flames | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Flames | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Flames | 74c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. FlamesDucks won
- Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.