NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3406a8ed991e093e2dbb7e4e029018946b4d6f7948631e17eb8d022dd8538321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 57c | 43,972$25,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,063.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 43c | 26,975$11,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,375.92 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 44c | 17,232$7,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,643.92 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 5,906$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.34 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 4,234$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.11 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 48c | 2,303$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.64 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 2,154$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Under | 49c | 1,980$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.06 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Under | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…ffb7backed Under | 4c | 1,324$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 1,200$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 46c | 1,005$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.95 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 43c | 812.19$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 47c | 799.96$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.68 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 70c | 759.89$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 550$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 44c | 382.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 360.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 45c | 345$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Under | 53c | 341.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Under | 53c | 338.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 320$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 319.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 54c | 293.67$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…19d7backed Under | 51c | 196.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc260…68dfbacked Under | 55c | 186.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 47c | 168.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 46c | 164$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 154.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…9f88backed Under | 55c | 114.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Over | 43c | 87.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 82.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 40c | 80.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Over | 44c | 64.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x693f…59febacked Under | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Over | 46c | 61.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 60.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Over | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…ec41backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…e10dbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…65b5backed Under | 43c | 35.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Under | 54c | 32.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed Under | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 55c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Under | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. FlamesDucks won
- Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flames won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.