NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3435cf1a9b7519a3f3b3d31f9ef12b21599e94b7f4f31a872f4d901d5324d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Avalanche, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fce…2229backed Utah | 79c | 2,485$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Utah | 64c | 2,064$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.88 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Avalanche | 36c | 2,013$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Avalanche | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Avalanche | 36c | 489.72$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Avalanche | 3c | 485$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Utah | 56c | 374.52$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Utah | 67c | 352.66$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Avalanche | 48c | 282.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Utah | 64c | 159.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Avalanche | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Utah | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Utah | 51c | 47.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Avalanche | 49c | 36.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…68eebacked Avalanche | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. UtahUtah won
- Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.