Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36790eee2254c8f92b23dd725584e97a3b1f5bd7bc73bc8866d1f94d53af82d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 467.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 466.71$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 31c | 263$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 40c | 262.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 258.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 79c | 203.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 5c | 189.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 184.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 149.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 36c | 118$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 29c | 104.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 43c | 93.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 76.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 66.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 79c | 64.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 54.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 42c | 52.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 60c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 41.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 40.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 58c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 76c | 38.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…f6babacked Yes | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 25.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…96f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 50c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 67c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.