Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5470fac03bcf257b0c4214237f9801fb35c555bf1571cfbb9cbb3e16535f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 766.51$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 60c | 308.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 288.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 62c | 283.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 61c | 273.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 220.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 184.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 171.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 19c | 169.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 22c | 150.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 142.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 42c | 130.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 126$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…7af1backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 16c | 114.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 109.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 106.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 38c | 106.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 103.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 102.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 101.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 99.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 43c | 81.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 73.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 72.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…4558backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 56c | 62.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 58.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 20c | 52.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…20e0backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 33c | 49.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 49c | 42.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 40.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 76c | 40.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 38c | 39.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 38.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 68c | 38.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 33.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 32.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 66c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 37c | 26.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 80c | 25.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 47c | 24.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…cf2dbacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 79c | 13.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.