South American Leagues · resolved market
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c6fa5853b3f463fab594442dadc181aaabc3d1e19a1a13a28a034a2cb53e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,150$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.22 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,942$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under | 48c | 851$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 695.28$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.19 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 34c | 286.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 34c | 284.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 264.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 63c | 208.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 187.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 41c | 181.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 165.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 33c | 122.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -8.8wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 122.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 113.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 47c | 75.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 75.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…a476backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Over | 49c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…4f3fbacked Under | 67c | 28.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 66c | 15.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5this page
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Over won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.