NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e18e025f87fb7161ed342c1245182abd846fee2c8cd43bf7c2f5ba88083666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Bills, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Bills | 47c | 29,770$13,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,984.79 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Saints | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,750 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Saints | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Saints | 52c | 933.81$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.23 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Bills | 48c | 553.82$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Saints | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bills | 46c | 325.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bills | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Saints | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 51c | 122.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Bills | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Saints | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Bills | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Bills | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked Bills | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…ee47backed Bills | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Saints | 53c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Bills | 47c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-15.5)this page
- Saints vs. BillsBills won
- Saints vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Over won
- Saints vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-13.5)Saints won
- Spread: Bills (-14.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.