NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb619a6476dd576c5f8eafda557e07f79c2f2b30013c8a140c3095d8efe2c2330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Bills, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Bills | 55c | 3,417$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.17 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 45c | 2,220$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.99 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Saints | 43c | 1,945$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.62 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Bills | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Saints | 46c | 1,271$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.44 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Bills | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 44c | 446.43$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Saints | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Saints | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…a32fbacked Bills | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Saints | 45c | 178.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Saints | 44c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Bills | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Bills | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Bills | 57c | 65.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Bills | 56c | 65.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Bills | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…a55cbacked Bills | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-13.5)this page
- Saints vs. BillsBills won
- Saints vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Over won
- Saints vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-14.5)Saints won
- Spread: Bills (-15.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.