Movies · resolved market
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ea60161bd3b316615cf031eb1eebe66ec0df9b3fc724d1e591c1618af47356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,118 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,209$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…4719backed Yes | 1c | 2,148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…f4e1backed Yes | 11c | 2,003$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a56fbacked Yes | 10c | 862.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…9a50backed Yes | 2c | 559.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…b76bbacked Yes | 10c | 454$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…2a66backed Yes | 12c | 380.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…442abacked Yes | 16c | 242.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 14c | 215.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 7c | 196.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…5049backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…c536backed Yes | 12c | 99.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 31c | 47.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…081bbacked No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Nobody 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Saw: The Final Chapter" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.