Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4170d05882a713a2288366c8386465feb38b5a1bdb74ae2d69ee873cb2b621f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 24c | 2,138$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.93 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 68c | 451$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 71c | 447.73$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.09 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 74c | 407.04$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 23c | 361.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.23 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 21c | 266.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 76c | 225$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Yes | 79c | 157$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 20c | 156.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 140.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 78c | 127.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 33c | 126.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 74c | 116.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 101$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…7682backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 90.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 85.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 51c | 74.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 72.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked No | 19c | 69.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked Yes | 56c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 36c | 67.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 63.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 72c | 60.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 57.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…f63cbacked Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 43.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed No | 50c | 37.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 73c | 32.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…aacbbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 50c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c5…ed20backed Yes | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.