Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf429cc1dd3b9b648dea07a317c2ffe2c3697c3b54e33afbde12c12a528ff7600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Bublik, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tien | 55c | 1,441$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Bublik | 45c | 991.9$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.95 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tien | 54c | 945.84$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Bublik | 45c | 937.72$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Tien | 60c | 842.71$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.71 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bublik | 40c | 622.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Tien | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Bublik | 44c | 586.19$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.41 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Bublik | 57c | 528.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tien | 56c | 500$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Bublik | 45c | 443.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Bublik | 45c | 265.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Bublik | 46c | 216.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Tien | 59c | 203.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Tien | 56c | 197.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Bublik | 61c | 154.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tien | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bublik | 41c | 137.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Bublik | 43c | 100.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Tien | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Bublik | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bublik | 57c | 85.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Bublik | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Bublik | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Tien | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7a36backed Tien | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…dd07backed Tien | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Tien | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander BublikLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs BublikBublik won
- Tien vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.