Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42a744f510e8e7998e8a8da561fb712c7966dfab4b510217ff8dac160432f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,540$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 685.4$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 314.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 18c | 281.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 70c | 200.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 194.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 38c | 176.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 31c | 163.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 37c | 134.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 66c | 120.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 119.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 98.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 96.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 68.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 59.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 37c | 49.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 46.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 46.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 41.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 39.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 38.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 33.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed No | 68c | 32.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 64c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 69c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 77c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.