Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4ad35073691f5416243b1bf38ad6a818c6464586502589f9a9e7adb10d924a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 30c | 711.34$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 27c | 648.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.05 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 20c | 508.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 13c | 489.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 43 | 83.7%36 W · 7 L | +11.8wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 412.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 406.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 382.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 76c | 378.14$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 27c | 311.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.24 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 300.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed No | 72c | 277.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 74c | 227.36$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 205.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 73c | 205.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 59c | 204.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 199.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 75c | 190$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 183.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 175.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 31c | 173.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 151.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 33c | 150.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 36c | 144.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 43c | 141.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 140.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 29c | 128.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 24c | 126.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 72c | 119.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 40c | 114.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 35c | 109.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 98.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 48c | 97.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 694 | 35.3%245 W · 449 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 33c | 97.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 29c | 97.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 34c | 95.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 41c | 91.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 327 | 37.9%124 W · 203 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 24c | 91.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 39c | 84.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 83.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 69c | 83.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 61c | 81.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 81.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 330 | 37.9%125 W · 205 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 19c | 80.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 77.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 69c | 76.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 29c | 73.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 57c | 72.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 70.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 69c | 70.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 71c | 69.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 67.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 73c | 66.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 65.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed No | 74c | 64.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 61.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 25c | 59.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 49c | 56.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 72c | 54.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 52.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 31c | 51.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 37c | 50.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 74c | 50.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 61c | 49.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 49.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 48.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 66c | 48.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 67c | 48.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 46.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 72c | 46.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 65c | 44.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 44.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 24c | 42.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fc…5eb2backed Yes | 73c | 42.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 25c | 41.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 41.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 72c | 40.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 33c | 38.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 38c | 36.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 65c | 35.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 32.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 431 | 43.9%189 W · 242 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 77c | 31.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 174 | 75.3%131 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 71c | 29.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 60c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 50c | 28.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 25.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 79c | 23.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 22.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.