TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No30c711.34$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3749038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes27c648.01$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.0513533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No20c508.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8487624.2%212 W · 664 L-39.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad1e…ccacbacked No13c489.91$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.194383.7%36 W · 7 L+11.8wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+60.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No26c412.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0112,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c406.27$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No18c382.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.352,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes76c378.14$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6334867.8%236 W · 112 L+26.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes27c311.95$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.2422550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes44c300.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No69c289.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed No72c277.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.984938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes74c227.36$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c205.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.975,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked No73c205.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7910865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes59c204.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c199.96$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.139,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes75c190$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.34156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No73c183.38$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c175.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.054,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes31c173.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.510617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No12c151.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.244,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf14a…86d2backed Yes33c150.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.833135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes36c144.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.937942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes43c141.45$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6374023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c140.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.092,50569.7%1,746 W · 759 L+77.7wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes29c128.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.545733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes24c126.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8334250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No72c119.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.713158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee1b…5571backed Yes40c114.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.792821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No35c109.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6512762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes28c98.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1327732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes48c97.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6869435.3%245 W · 449 L-2.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed Yes33c97.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.351931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes29c97.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2918650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes34c95.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes41c91.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9532737.9%124 W · 203 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No24c91.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.341,85725.4%472 W · 1,385 L+133.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+48.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No39c84.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.841,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No67c83.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed No69c83.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4421142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes61c81.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes23c81.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6733037.9%125 W · 205 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes19c80.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0416324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No72c77.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes69c76.76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.426553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed No29c73.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3816530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No57c72.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c70.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.577,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes69c70.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6311223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No71c69.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8710247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c67.4$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No73c66.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3932830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No76c65.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6524370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ea…6523backed No74c64.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.054060%24 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c61.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes25c59.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.482,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes49c56.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No72c54.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8621440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes22c52.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.051,70660.7%1,035 W · 671 L-23.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed Yes31c51.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.946241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.079,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes37c50.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No74c50.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.058466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes25c49.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.499935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes61c49.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c49.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1512,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes29c48.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9235133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes66c48.29$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No67c48.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3137533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes28c46.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No72c46.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.597360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes28c46.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes65c44.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.484,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No72c44.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes24c42.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.722623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fc…5eb2backed Yes73c42.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.47475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda8…e905backed No25c41.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.353661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No72c41.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No72c40.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.175961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No33c38.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6717755.4%98 W · 79 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No38c36.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0821338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes65c35.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.736137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes38c32.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.443143.9%189 W · 242 L+15.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No77c31.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1213243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,59578.6%1,253 W · 342 L+41.1wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked No76c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7917475.3%131 W · 43 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No71c29.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8914671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes60c29.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5912337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes50c28.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.241,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85,16168.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L+71.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed Yes55c26.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.725641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No76c25.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2733373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1557554.3%312 W · 263 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes79c23.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8325449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes50c22.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.444744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes45c22.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4911069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No71c22.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8848672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.