Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4ccb7caec591451452b90b66796981790a4b8d496391af3ce6227f30b90ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 545.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 351.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 48c | 329.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 312.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 307.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 18c | 305.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 209$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 37c | 207.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 201.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 150.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 131.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 37c | 125.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 32c | 118.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 21c | 116.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 29c | 113.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 62c | 111.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 10c | 104.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 95.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 94.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 82.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 47c | 81.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 30c | 79.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 33c | 76.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 20c | 70.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…9424backed Yes | 26c | 68.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 34c | 68.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 68.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 66.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 65c | 63.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 59.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 39c | 57.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 54.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 53.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 35c | 53.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 51.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fc…5eb2backed No | 78c | 50.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 27c | 49.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 46.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 45.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 44.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 68c | 42.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 38.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 66c | 37.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 37.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 36.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 39c | 36.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 35c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 62c | 35.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 34c | 31.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 71c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 40c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 66c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 71c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.