Mls · resolved market
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42d4d316bec3875a2633b096fe7354d41709ca278f1c06345a89dace91a29bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked No | 72c | 4,814$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.41 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 3c | 3,599$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 1,290$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 4c | 1,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 1,061$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 994.57$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.76 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 854.48$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.96 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Yes | 5c | 529.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 457.05$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 6c | 408.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 28c | 385$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 345$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Yes | 29c | 248.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 168.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 138.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 13c | 132.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 72c | 130.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 119$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 117.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 13c | 112.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 73c | 108.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 28c | 84.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 80c | 62.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 74c | 54.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 72c | 35.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed No | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?No won
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.