Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46255b1204876441d56aa2f20c30511ba106bbe197a996b47c02e5b241baf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 67c | 517.69$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 211.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 133.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 131.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 73c | 117.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 45c | 115.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 60c | 97.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 88.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 82.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 65c | 81.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 78.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 77.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 71c | 71.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed No | 30c | 61.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 57.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 42c | 55.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 53.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 58c | 52.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 52.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 41c | 52.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 60c | 48.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 53c | 48.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 45.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…b080backed No | 42c | 45.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 72c | 43.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 39.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 37.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked Yes | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 30c | 36.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 53c | 35.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 48c | 32.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ccbbacked No | 34c | 32.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…cdd8backed Yes | 55c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 29.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 73c | 26.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 73c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 52c | 25.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 71c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…5621backed No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.