Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48b1fd17884f15484a88f35a56def56f52b350e7e67db72e9fbd6d9da5b5947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,606 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 46c | 364.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 355.18$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 62c | 314.25$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 55c | 182.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Under | 56c | 179.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 156.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 30c | 139.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 131.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 54c | 126.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Over | 31c | 124$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 28c | 110.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 100.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 99.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 29c | 59.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 68c | 54.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Under | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…d7a4backed Over | 22c | 44.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 74c | 37.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 69c | 32.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 58c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.