Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Naomi Osaka vs Suzan Lamens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a4628556ab95ac32387aa1ee3021e28ee4fe1b43ff99fa6a94de6457356d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Lamens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lamens | 21c | 10,928$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.58 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Osaka | 78c | 5,893$4,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.91 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lamens | 16c | 2,899$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.7 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Lamens | 14c | 2,875$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.06 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Lamens | 15c | 2,800$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lamens | 17c | 2,435$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Osaka | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Lamens | 18c | 1,399$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.85 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Osaka | 79c | 1,307$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Lamens | 9c | 1,099$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Lamens | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Osaka | 79c | 401.62$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Lamens | 15c | 387.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Lamens | 29c | 381.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lamens | 9c | 298$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Osaka | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Osaka | 79c | 253.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Lamens | 16c | 200.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Lamens | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Lamens | 17c | 159.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lamens | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Lamens | 30c | 99.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lamens | 15c | 87.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…b0e4backed Lamens | 21c | 84.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Lamens | 21c | 81.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Lamens | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.