World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a9842d125a2bad4bde222a8d05e7baa37a81f3d335507115ec07eab54d20b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 690.81$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 263.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 232.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 137.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 31c | 122.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 89.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 76.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 70.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 64.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 61.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 76c | 61.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 51.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 25c | 50.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 27c | 48.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 27c | 47.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 46.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 43.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 43.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfd…430dbacked Yes | 29c | 38.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 58c | 38.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 31.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 71c | 26.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.