World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x973a3ca25329e5a3a11a43b378be3aa38688be730343e1f3e463cf03ba64e47a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,191$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 159.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 20c | 132.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 129.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 75c | 100.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 75.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 26c | 69.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 55.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 47.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 42.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 39.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 79c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 51c | 21.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…de33backed No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 70c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 68c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 76c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…53e0backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.