World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee5a840fd3a8b32bf1f75f0cbac9204e9e0c484e35732704ed1cc0c047063a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 247.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 243.36$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 194.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 170.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 25c | 157.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 128.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 27c | 122.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 94.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 94.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 85.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 68.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 66.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 66.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 65.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 58.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 58.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 53.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 53.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 61c | 49.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 43.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 33.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.