Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d6c0b66ae863c85be59afe5294f3e384b1f5c7962513a710ca41620eee1d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Majchrzak, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Minaur | 33c | 731.42$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.53 | 234 | 51.7%121 W · 113 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Majchrzak | 58c | 400.01$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Majchrzak | 65c | 244.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minaur | 9c | 189$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minaur | 30c | 139.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Majchrzak | 67c | 131.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Majchrzak | 69c | 117.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Majchrzak | 75c | 89.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Majchrzak | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Minaur | 41c | 66.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 176 | 54%95 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Majchrzak | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minaur | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Minaur | 40c | 45.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 627 | 49.4%310 W · 317 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Majchrzak | 80c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Majchrzak | 34c | 43.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 716 | 21.1%151 W · 565 L | -29.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minaur | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Majchrzak | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Majchrzak | 71c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaurthis page
- Kamil Majchrzak vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de MinaurKamil Majchrzak won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)Majchrzak won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.