Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe3bc4827cd369c336cc87ff4f8cdba4cc262526810317067f4d165cf183f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Minaur, Majchrzak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minaur | 49c | 4,688$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.19 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Majchrzak | 51c | 4,417$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.27 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…db19backed Minaur | 54c | 2,161$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Majchrzak | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Majchrzak | 51c | 789.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.36 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Minaur | 51c | 622.24$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.34 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Majchrzak | 48c | 413.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.14 | 401 | 44.4%178 W · 223 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Minaur | 50c | 275.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Majchrzak | 51c | 260$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minaur | 52c | 229.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Majchrzak | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | +27.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Majchrzak | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Majchrzak | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…1c51backed Majchrzak | 50c | 198.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Minaur | 50c | 178.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Majchrzak | 46c | 160.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Majchrzak | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Minaur | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Minaur | 51c | 133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Minaur | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Majchrzak | 51c | 89.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minaur | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Minaur | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Minaur | 52c | 60.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Minaur | 52c | 60.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…f51dbacked Minaur | 52c | 57.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Minaur | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fef…7462backed Minaur | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.7wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Minaur | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)this page
- Kamil Majchrzak vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de MinaurKamil Majchrzak won
- Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs MinaurMajchrzak won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.