South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e71ad8faed60b7b02d1d0f6b7a2b50f631879ce5ea357463caac853d74cae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 43c | 692.64$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Over | 44c | 478.01$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 44c | 377.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 370.73$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 57c | 322.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 69c | 270.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 212.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 48c | 210$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Under | 56c | 164.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Under | 56c | 163.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed Under | 56c | 150.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 70c | 143.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…4126backed Under | 13c | 122.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 68.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 61.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 26c | 40.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 44c | 29.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.