South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaeabbd2d76b6a3f33e90127621aa6ba3a92032663d9cb2400e74151039bd6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,765 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 3,680$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.12 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 58c | 1,619$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,104$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.21 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 62c | 917.85$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.62 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 36c | 856.52$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.86 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 733.87$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.18 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 658.27$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.92 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 44c | 472$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.68 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 14c | 458.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 383.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 49c | 337.43$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 10c | 303$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 42c | 254$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 59c | 253.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 64c | 224.56$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 220.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 219.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Over | 32c | 187.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 78c | 113.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 42c | 105.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed Over | 28c | 78.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 65c | 71.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…2927backed Over | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 50.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 61c | 29.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 74c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.