South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52c4cc986a8ee82e2b1c530654d476adb4e1ad812f4c96dceb615a104aad3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 987.91$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 679.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 35c | 649.83$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.44 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 57c | 515.68$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 473.66$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 75c | 463.84$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 289.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 265.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 214.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 202.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 24c | 195.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 124.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 76c | 114.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 96.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Over | 29c | 91.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 77c | 87.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 74c | 80.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 77c | 79.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 35c | 71.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 70.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 75c | 60.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Over | 35c | 56.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 29c | 55.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 24c | 55.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 71c | 51.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 60c | 46.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 73c | 46.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 72c | 46.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 60c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 77c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.