South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a655da66f961e26b39a0e94fd209f29ec9dae29bd65c135ac7c79e3a32aace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 54c | 1,716$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.45 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 41c | 1,183$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 46c | 1,037$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.65 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 17c | 1,009$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 987.81$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 69c | 710.96$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.28 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 47c | 618.59$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.14 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 575.01$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 523.02$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 20c | 449.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 17c | 436.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 62c | 395.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.43 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 80c | 370.35$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Over | 71c | 277.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…5e13backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 233.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 227.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 202.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Over | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 65c | 145.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 12c | 139.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…757bbacked Over | 40c | 129.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 38c | 126.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 49c | 122.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 119.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 117.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 39c | 107.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed Over | 57c | 103.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 14c | 102$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…7f6bbacked Under | 14c | 100.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 61c | 99.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 75c | 91.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…fceebacked Over | 47c | 78.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 78c | 66.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 23c | 61.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 40c | 59.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 52.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 51.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 55c | 51.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 22c | 51.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 47c | 47.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…800dbacked Under | 25c | 44.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 31c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 31c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcde…5222backed Over | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 31c | 35.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 56c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 30.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 56c | 29.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…2a35backed Over | 50c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Over | 38c | 28.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed Under | 55c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 56c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 43c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 68c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.