Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf53aeda9726c88db9eba2ea8d4da1699e51d236e13af17fb428c3a3f8196c7d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 69c | 604.34$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 563.76$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 16c | 469.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.43 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 71c | 266.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 72c | 167.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 134.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 32c | 114.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 96.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 91.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 90.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 69c | 85.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 85.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 85.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 77.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 35c | 72.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 62.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 27c | 54.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 34c | 51.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 33c | 50.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 68c | 44.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 70c | 42.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 32c | 41.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 39.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 39.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 36c | 38.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…1635backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 28.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 25.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 64c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 71c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 16.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 75c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.