CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs Flame Sharks (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58e7ffb7647512681ba210269b4e43a855cbe76e3dc195c1c8a761ef1895a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WATERMELONof WATERMELON, Flame Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01cc…1f09backed Flame Sharks | 2c | 8,088$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked WATERMELON | 36c | 6,405$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.14 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…34fbbacked Flame Sharks | 1c | 4,116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flame Sharks | 63c | 3,495$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Flame Sharks | 62c | 2,875$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.41 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Flame Sharks | 9c | 2,781$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.22 | 277 | 53.8%149 W · 128 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed WATERMELON | 42c | 1,548$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.65 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed Flame Sharks | 7c | 1,366$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f6a4backed Flame Sharks | 29c | 692.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Flame Sharks | 37c | 567.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flame Sharks | 62c | 506.42$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.97 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Flame Sharks | 10c | 283.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked WATERMELON | 78c | 191.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…76c6backed Flame Sharks | 19c | 184.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked WATERMELON | 73c | 169.94$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Flame Sharks | 69c | 139.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed WATERMELON | 31c | 120.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked WATERMELON | 44c | 114.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…1162backed WATERMELON | 78c | 99.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…60f1backed Flame Sharks | 70c | 97.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed Flame Sharks | 68c | 93.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Flame Sharks | 67c | 92.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…b946backed Flame Sharks | 28c | 90.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Flame Sharks | 64c | 71.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed Flame Sharks | 67c | 62.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Flame Sharks | 67c | 62.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed WATERMELON | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3174…b136backed WATERMELON | 51c | 59.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed WATERMELON | 34c | 53.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…0684backed Flame Sharks | 58c | 48.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…5313backed Flame Sharks | 36c | 48.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Flame Sharks | 62c | 46.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…a5d5backed Flame Sharks | 68c | 46.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed WATERMELON | 40c | 41.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Flame Sharks | 65c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Flame Sharks | 66c | 35.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…9717backed Flame Sharks | 35c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed Flame Sharks | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…0f93backed Flame Sharks | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…cecbbacked Flame Sharks | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Flame Sharks | 66c | 24.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…0546backed WATERMELON | 71c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Flame Sharks | 58c | 18.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs Flame Sharks (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs Flame Sharks - Map 1 WinnerFlame Sharks won
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs Flame Sharks - Map 2 WinnerWATERMELON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.