Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs Schwaerzler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b702d1a7eeeb67b9063b3d072ad4714a0880d54a1289bc3d9a3cf6115a8929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Schwaerzler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Schwaerzler | 38c | 1,082$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Sonego | 61c | 976.53$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.53 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Schwaerzler | 38c | 930.63$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.76 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Sonego | 64c | 669.16$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Schwaerzler | 38c | 245$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 854 | 49.6%424 W · 430 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Sonego | 57c | 238.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Sonego | 56c | 190.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Sonego | 68c | 184.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Sonego | 62c | 157.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 306 | 42.2%129 W · 177 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Schwaerzler | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…3bedbacked Sonego | 71c | 71.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…d4f7backed Sonego | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Schwaerzler | 39c | 43.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Schwaerzler | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sonego | 71c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Sonego | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs Schwaerzlerthis page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Joel Schwaerzler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Schwaerzler (+1.5)Sonego won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel SchwaerzlerLorenzo Sonego won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.