Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Schwaerzler (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de0bbe46721a1573d8eefcd4ff9f9e083dd6e1e61fb3ebb506cba1f347c23e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Schwaerzler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Schwaerzler | 58c | 2,939$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Sonego | 50c | 1,425$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.75 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Schwaerzler | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Sonego | 42c | 853.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.31 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Sonego | 42c | 786$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.88 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sonego | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.13 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Sonego | 42c | 565.52$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.09 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Schwaerzler | 53c | 361.77$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Sonego | 54c | 359.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 152 | 25%38 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Sonego | 46c | 165.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Schwaerzler | 38c | 134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Schwaerzler | 58c | 104.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Sonego | 42c | 93.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…0effbacked Sonego | 46c | 93.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…c9e2backed Schwaerzler | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Schwaerzler | 50c | 70.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Schwaerzler | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Sonego | 47c | 66.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a46…c6a0backed Schwaerzler | 58c | 64.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Schwaerzler | 49c | 59.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Schwaerzler | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Schwaerzler | 53c | 52.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Sonego | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Schwaerzler | 43c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Schwaerzler | 58c | 40.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Schwaerzler | 43c | 36.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sonego | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Sonego | 42c | 31.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Sonego | 44c | 23.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Schwaerzler | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Schwaerzler | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Schwaerzler (+1.5)this page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Joel Schwaerzler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel SchwaerzlerLorenzo Sonego won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.