Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Schwaerzler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e413ad497ebf5a4492c0164c75f9ef9b4763c1cd3df19c3a8c9b16814820877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Schwaerzler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Sonego | 65c | 10,553$6,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,693.75 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Sonego | 65c | 1,540$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.51 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 1,309$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.24 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 1,298$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.07 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Schwaerzler | 37c | 798.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Sonego | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 658.39$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Schwaerzler | 37c | 600$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…a7debacked Schwaerzler | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 504.25$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.01 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Schwaerzler | 34c | 502.93$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Sonego | 63c | 301$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Schwaerzler | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Schwaerzler | 32c | 277.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Schwaerzler | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Schwaerzler | 32c | 128$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Schwaerzler | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…b77fbacked Sonego | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Schwaerzler | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Schwaerzler | 36c | 97.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…e15abacked Sonego | 64c | 88.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Schwaerzler | 35c | 77.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Sonego | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…3bedbacked Sonego | 65c | 52.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Schwaerzler | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 45.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Schwaerzler | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sonego | 63c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Schwaerzler | 36c | 27.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Schwaerzlerthis page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Joel Schwaerzler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Schwaerzler (+1.5)Sonego won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel SchwaerzlerLorenzo Sonego won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.