Tennis · resolved market
Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed8dbbe3ad702277c98ff82878a85eb3a290a81d2d3e1d73b259bf5de8e4e35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Over | 50c | 1,222$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…bc50backed Under | 50c | 990$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 507.63$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 461.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…6655backed Under | 50c | 108.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1277backed Under | 50c | 61.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…3658backed Over | 54c | 53.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…cae1backed Under | 50c | 43.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…293bbacked Under | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Joel Schwaerzler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Set 2 Winner: Sonego vs SchwaerzlerSonego won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Schwaerzler (+1.5)Sonego won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sonego vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel SchwaerzlerLorenzo Sonego won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.