Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d2f2ce12690536d55011f2c92404368d7a44fc02c07c98f09c18a4712af9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd728…97a9backed Yes | 2c | 929.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 495.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 75c | 425.9$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 50c | 346.76$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 290.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 267.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 195.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 54c | 165.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 40c | 93.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 90.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 64c | 89.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 46c | 74.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 41c | 59.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 46c | 59.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 56.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 55c | 53.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 39c | 48.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 43c | 46.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 44.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 43.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 32c | 41.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 63c | 39.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 47c | 36.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 53c | 36.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4efbbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 45c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 29.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Yes | 43c | 29.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 28.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 38c | 27.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 60c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 62c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…0950backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…fce0backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.