Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5437502ffbecb95195eac82c75e98bcc46a8bb5f8f3413d0dabb9e3ed831978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,418$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 1c | 1,245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 3c | 895.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 770.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed No | 9c | 743.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 741.09$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 8c | 499.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 62c | 381.74$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 7c | 294.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 15c | 254.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 249.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 199.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 197.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 186.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 19c | 168.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 22c | 162.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 159.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 151.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 25c | 150.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 74c | 138.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 21c | 131.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 69c | 116.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…c882backed No | 22c | 105.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 90.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 85.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 28c | 84.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 73c | 83.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 18c | 79.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed No | 22c | 76.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 20c | 75.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 22c | 68.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 23c | 67.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…30eebacked Yes | 28c | 66.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 21c | 64.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 60.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 30c | 60.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 57.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 54.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 28c | 48.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 42.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 79c | 32.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 80c | 29.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 36c | 28.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 27.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 25.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 22.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 69c | 20.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…9baabacked No | 79c | 19.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 15.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.