NHL · resolved market
SHL: Faerjestad vs. Roegle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e6102bf3bffff5f5eb67ee2d6d6c4a5aafbe49566099f8d11a1b55380abc53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roegleof Faerjestad, Roegle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Roegle | 44c | 1,819$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.48 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Faerjestad | 56c | 1,565$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Faerjestad | 17c | 179.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Faerjestad | 42c | 160.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Faerjestad | 55c | 153.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Faerjestad | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Roegle | 45c | 102$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Roegle | 41c | 94.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Faerjestad | 21c | 79.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Faerjestad | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Roegle | 56c | 68.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Roegle | 56c | 68.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Faerjestad | 22c | 57.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Roegle | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Roegle | 49c | 49.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Roegle | 75c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Faerjestad | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Faerjestad | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…8534backed Roegle | 45c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Roegle | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Roegle | 44c | 29.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Roegle | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Faerjestad | 51c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed Faerjestad | 52c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Roegle | 45c | 23.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.